2022 was one of the driest years on record for Terry County. According to the South Plains Underground Water District, Terry County’s underground water level decreased by nearly a quarter of an inch. This is significant. The County finished the year at just under 11 inches on the average. The County average rainfall is 17.79. It doesn’t take a math whiz to see the variation here.
Will it rain in 2023? Or will it be a repeat of last year? TownTalk looked at a couple of different sources for information regarding the possibility of rain.
The first is from the Texas Water Development Board:
Numerous applications project drought conditions at a variety of time scales. Here are some resources and how the Texas Water Development Board uses them.
- One-month outlook: We use this Climate Prediction Center site to see temperature and rainfall projections over the next month. There are also other projections that extend out as far as 12.5 months, though accuracy wanes significantly when looking at projections beyond three months.
- U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook: We use this site for Climate Prediction Center projections on expected drought conditions one month out.
- Projected drought: We use this tool to assess the severity of drought conditions in the upcoming month.
- Worst-case drought and rainfall needed to come out of drought: We use this tool to assess the worst drought that could occur over a given time span (such as one month or six months) if no rain falls through the end of that period. We also use the tool to assess how much rainfall is needed to come out of such a worst-case drought and the odds of that happening over the period of interest.
- U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (three-month outlook): We use this site to see a projection by the Climate Prediction Center on expected drought conditions three months out.
- Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: We use this site to see what the outlook is for the hurricane season.
- Current tropical weather: We use this site to see what the outlook is for the hurricane season.
- El Niño/Southern Oscillation Outlook: We use this site to assess the likelihood of El Niño (cooler and wetter Texas winters but suppression of tropical systems) or La Niña (warmer and dryer Texas winters) conditions. Figure 6 in the outlook shows a spaghetti chart of different statistical and dynamical model projections as well as averages from those models.
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation: We use this site to see the status of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which refers to long-term fluctuations in sea surface temperatures between the western north Pacific Ocean and the Pacific coast of North America. A PDO “negative” or “cool phase,” when warmer than normal sea surface temperatures prevail in the western north Pacific Ocean and cooler than normal sea surface temperatures prevail off the Pacific coast of North America, is generally associated with higher temperatures and lower rainfall in the summer over Texas. A PDO “positive” or “warm phase,” when cooler than normal temperatures prevail in the western north Pacific and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures prevail off the Pacific coast, is generally associated with lower temperatures and higher rainfall in the summer over Texas.
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: We use this site to see the status of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which refers to long-term fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the northern Atlantic Ocean. Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the northern Atlantic Ocean are generally associated with higher temperatures and lower rainfall in the summer over Texas, as well as more tropical systems turning into hurricanes in the Atlantic basin but fewer tropical systems moving into the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall over Texas.
- Wildland Fire Outlook: We use this site to determine where wildfires might be an issue in the near future.
Tne National Weather Climate Prediction Service says:
The forecast through March 2023 period is heavily influenced by the high potential for La Niña conditions to persist through a third Boreal winter season in a row. Climate anomalies associated with cold ENSO events are robust, and typically favor drier and warmer conditions along the southern tier of the CONUS, and wetter conditions for the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, the northern Plains, the Great Lakes, and from the middle Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, the southern tier of states and the central Plains tend to be drier than normal. This would seem to make the forecast fairly straightforward, but there are complicating factors.
Across the Plains and adjacent areas, January-March is climatologically drier than most other times of year, so precipitation anomalies have less impact on the moisture budget than during the wetter times of year. In addition, heavy precipitation is anticipated during the last half of December in a few areas that are typically drier than normal during La Niña episodes, particularly near the central Gulf Coast.
The resulting forecast calls for improving conditions in the small patches of drought in New England and in a swath across the northern tier of the country from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes Region. Improvement is also anticipated in the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, where heavy precipitation is expected over the next 1-2 weeks. Expected above-normal precipitation in Hawaii should bring some improvement there as well.
In contrast, drought areas across the central Plains and the southern tier of states are expected to persist or deteriorate, with some expansion anticipated into parts of the South Atlantic Coast, central and southern Texas, part of the southern High Plains, portions of the central and southern Rockies, and southeastern California.
Bottom line: It needs to start raining! Our land and our aquifer both need rainfall in abundance. Be sure to add this to your prayer list!
