On Wednesday, July 30th, Texas GOP lawmakers in the Texas 89th Special Legislative Session (1) unveiled the first draft of the state’s new congressional map, which proposes altered district lines aimed at flipping five Democratic seats in the upcoming midterm elections. While this redistricting is intended to be statewide, Brownfield and Terry County will not experience any changes. Redistricting typically occurs in the year following a census, which is conducted every ten years.
The new map specifically targets Democratic U.S. House members in the metro areas of Austin, Dallas, Houston, and parts of South Texas. The draft, presented by state Rep. Todd Hunter, R-Corpus Christi, is expected to undergo changes before the final version is approved by both chambers of the legislature and signed by Governor Greg Abbott. Democrats have indicated that they might attempt to disrupt the process by leaving the state.
This mid-decade redistricting is taking place after a campaign led by President Donald Trump’s political team, aimed at solidifying Republicans’ narrow majority in the U.S. House. Currently, Republicans hold 25 out of Texas’ 38 House seats. Trump won 27 of these districts in 2024, including those held by Democratic U.S. Representatives Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen.
Under the proposed new lines, 30 districts would have been carried by Trump last year, each by a margin of at least 10 percentage points.
The map was quickly criticized by Democrats as being racist and illegal, as they raised concerns about the potential dilution of voters of color. The proposed map divides voters of color in Tarrant County among multiple neighboring Republican districts and alters the shape of the 35th District in Central Texas, which was originally established through a court order to protect the voting rights of people of color.
Rep. Greg Casar, who represents the 35th District stretching from Austin to San Antonio, expressed concerns about the map, suggesting that it fails to adequately represent the interests of Texas voters. Casar said, “If Trump is allowed to rip the Voting Rights Act to shreds here in Central Texas, his ploy will spread like wildfire across the country,…Everyone who cares about our democracy must mobilize against this illegal map.”
The proposed changes to the electoral map aim to enhance representation by creating two additional districts where white residents comprise a majority of eligible voters, increasing the total from 22 to 24. Additionally, the plan seeks to establish one more district where Hispanic residents, the state’s largest demographic group, form the majority, bringing the total to eight. Importantly, it also introduces two majority-Black districts, where none existed previously.
These adjustments reflect a shift in the traditional dynamics of redistricting, particularly as Republicans have increasingly engaged with Hispanic voters, achieving notable success in the 2024 election. Notably, four of the five districts drawn by Republicans with the aim of flipping seats would be majority Hispanic, with the Hispanic populations in the new districts in Houston and Central Texas close to 50%.
The districts represented by U.S. Representatives Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, both of which are predominantly Hispanic and located in South Texas, would be adjusted to create slightly more favorable conditions for Republicans. In the 2024 election, Trump received 53% and 52% of the vote in those districts, respectively; under the proposed new lines, he is projected to receive nearly 55%.
The proposal also focuses on Democratic U.S. Representatives, such as Julie Johnson of Farmers Branch, whose Dallas-anchored district would undergo changes to favor Republican candidates, and Marc Veasey of Fort Worth. While Veasey’s district would remain solidly Democratic, it would lose all of Fort Worth—an area that serves as his hometown and political base. The new configuration, which would solely include Dallas County, merges parts of Johnson’s, Veasey’s, and Representative Jasmine Crockett’s current districts, creating the potential for an interesting primary contest between Veasey and Johnson.
Furthermore, the introduction of a new Republican district in Central Texas creates the possibility for Democratic Representatives Greg Casar and Lloyd Doggett to run against each other in a primary for the area’s remaining blue district. To navigate this situation effectively, one of them might consider stepping aside or preparing for a challenging race in a new Central Texas district based in San Antonio, where Trump would have secured a 10-point victory in the past election.
In the Houston area, the proposed redistricting map aims to reshape four Democratic congressional districts, presenting an opportunity for a thoughtful discussion on representation and community needs. A significant adjustment is set to occur in the 9th Congressional District, currently represented by Rep. Al Green. This district, which currently includes the southern part of Harris County and its immediate southern neighbors, would be reconfigured to cover the eastern regions of Houston, where there are currently no congressional representatives.
Under the existing boundaries, this district was won by former Vice President Kamala Harris by a 44% margin. However, the new map would shift the political landscape, as it is projected that Trump would have won it by a 15% margin, which invites consideration of how such changes affect local constituents.
The Texas Legislature, dominated by Republicans, last drew congressional maps in 2021 with a focus on enhancing incumbency security. In recent elections, Republican candidates secured victories by double-digit margins across all Republican-held districts in Texas, including in competitive races where Democratic challengers were present. For instance, Rep. Monica De La Cruz from Edinburg achieved a notable 14-point victory, showcasing the competitive nature of some races.
To strategically gain additional seats, Republicans have proposed consolidating more Democratic voters within the blue urban centers of the state. This move could enable Democrats to achieve larger victories in districts they already control, while also reallocating Republican voters from solidly red districts into those represented by Democrats, such as the districts held by Reps. Johnson and Casar.
Importantly, the proposed map does not significantly alter the competitiveness of Republican incumbents’ districts. The map-drawers have succeeded in relocating some Republican voters into Democratic districts, specifically around Dallas and Houston, without endangering the Republican seats held by Reps. Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving) and Troy Nehls (R-Fort Bend). This strategic adjustment reflects a commitment to maintaining the stability of incumbents’ districts while engaging in the redistricting process.
The newly proposed majority-Black districts include the 18th Congressional District, centered in Houston. This district has a rich legacy of representation from prominent Black Democratic leaders, such as Barbara Jordan, Mickey Leland, Sheila Jackson Lee, and most recently, Sylvester Turner, whose passing in March left the seat vacant. The new map intends to further strengthen this district by incorporating more Democratic voters. In the 2024 elections, Harris received 69% of the vote in this district, and under the revised boundaries, this support could increase to 76%.
Additionally, Crockett’s district (30th) in Dallas is set to become a majority-Black seat, enhancing representation for the community. The 18th District was noted as one of four majority-minority congressional districts in Texas that the U.S. Department of Justice identified as potentially unconstitutional racial gerrymanders. The ongoing dialogue around these observations encourages thoughtful consideration of how redistricting practices can be aligned with fair representation for all communities.
As this map is implemented, it is expected to face legal challenges, as courts have historically deemed that at least one Texas congressional map has violated the Voting Rights Act every decade since the law’s inception in the mid-1960s. The current map is still under review in federal court in El Paso, and the outcome remains pending.
