Although there was a small rain shower that came through Brownfield and parts of Terry County on Monday, April 24, 2023, however, it did not produce enough to get the county out of “severe drought”. According to the US Drought Monitor, Terry County has fallen into the severe drought category last Thursday.
Planting season for cotton and peanuts is right around the corner for Terry County and South Plains producers. Mason Becker said, “The drought is definitely making things more challenging! From blowing out cover crops to running behind in ground preparation, it makes everything difficult. The drought coupled with higher input costs are making decisions on planting challenging, to say the least.”
Currently, 2023 is reminiscent of the drought in 2011 when there was a total of 4.84 inches. As of Monday, April 24, 2023, there has been a total of 0.78 of an inch since January 1, 2023. This time in 2011, there had only been 0.53 of an inch of rain.
Of course, looking at the economic impact of drought, things look very dire. Meadow Farmers COOP Gin Manager Dan Jackson said, “We desperately need rain, and a lot of it, along with the market to get back in the .90-1.00 range price-wise. Without those two things happening it could be a very bleak year for the high plains.”
In 2021, Terry County and South Plains producers saw a “bumper” crop because the rains received hit at the right time, however in 2022, in Terry County, the rainfall amount prior to planting was very low at 0.36 of an inch, which is worse than 2011 and currently in 2023. Now there were two months in a row, May & June 2022 when 1.24 inches fell, but it was too little too late for the producers.
Jackson told Farm Progress, “Last year, we ginned 51,000 bales. I expect to run no more than 10% of that from the 2022 crop. This will be the worst year of my career.” According to the United States Dept. of Agriculture, Texas Upland (South Plains & High Plains), cotton bales were down 57% from 2021.
South Plain Underground Water Conservation District (SPUWCD) Manager Layne Marlow told TownTalk that the National Weather Service website shows the three-month average for April – June is 7.18”. Forecast for the next three months: 33% above normal for April. 45% below normal for May and 22% above normal for June. Of course, the growing season for our major row crops in Terry County is April to September, and most of our Cotton in Terry County is planted in May.
Marlow went on to say, “As you can see, rainfall totals are significantly higher in the growing season than in winter months. The average 100-year total for the 6 growing months is 12.56’. However, last year (2022) the growing season total was only 7.01’. 2011 growing season – 1.63’”
Marlow has been listening to several climatologists speak at various conferences around the area this year and they are predicting the La Nina climate pattern has ended and El Nino is expected to form this summer. El Nino periods are usually wetter than usual for this area, and the Southwest US in general.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in the Southern United States, during the fall through spring, El Niño usually causes increased rainfall and sometimes destructive flooding. However, La Niña, will cause drier weather in the South, but the Northwest tends to be colder and wetter than average. Although El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it often reduces the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic Ocean. Counter to El Nina, La Niña events tend to be related to an increase in the number of Atlantic hurricanes.
“We are always a good rain away from being back where we need to be. We will just pray that is sooner rather than later!” said Becker.
