Terry County continues to feel the effects of ongoing dry conditions, with drought and fire danger remaining a concern across the South Plains.
So far in 2026, the county has already recorded one of its drier starts in recent history. Early-year rainfall totals have fallen short of normal levels, contributing to ongoing soil moisture deficits and stressing crops, rangeland, and overall water supply.
Terry County remains firmly in the grip of drought conditions, with the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor showing the entire county classified in severe drought. That means 100 percent of residents are currently being impacted by ongoing dryness. While conditions have not deteriorated dramatically in recent weeks, they have also failed to show any meaningful improvement, pointing to a prolonged stretch of below-normal moisture that continues to affect agriculture, water supplies, and overall fire risk across the area.
This extended period of dry weather is not just reflected on maps, but also in ground-level indicators that track how dangerous conditions have become. One of the most widely used tools for measuring fire potential is the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, or KBDI. This index evaluates soil and vegetation dryness and estimates the potential for wildfire activity. The scale ranges from 0 to 800, with higher numbers indicating increasingly severe dryness and a greater likelihood that fires could ignite and spread rapidly.
Terry County is currently sitting at a KBDI value of 519, a level that aligns with the severe drought classification reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor. This number reflects significant dryness in both surface fuels and deeper soil layers, creating conditions where fires can not only start easily but also burn more intensely and become difficult to control. Even more concerning, the index has increased by 2 points from the previous week, a sign that conditions, while not changing drastically, continue to trend in the wrong direction.
Even moderate increases in the KBDI can have serious implications, particularly across the open terrain of Terry County where grasslands and agricultural fields dominate the landscape. In these environments, dry fuels combined with wind can allow fires to spread quickly, often outpacing response efforts if not caught early.
Because of these conditions, Terry County remains under a burn ban, a precaution to reduce the risk of accidental fires. With dry vegetation, low humidity, and the potential for gusty winds, even a small spark can quickly turn into a dangerous situation.
Across Texas, drought remains a widespread issue. Nearly 85 percent of the state is currently experiencing drought conditions ranging from moderate to extreme levels, highlighting the broader regional challenge facing communities, agriculture, and water resources.
Looking ahead, the local forecast offers only limited relief. While occasional chances for precipitation remain in the forecast, conditions are expected to stay generally dry with temperatures trending near to above normal for this time of year. Without significant rainfall, drought conditions are likely to persist, and fire danger will remain elevated.
For residents, that means continuing to take precautions. Avoid outdoor burning, properly dispose of cigarettes, and remain mindful of equipment that could spark a fire. For farmers and producers, the ongoing dryness remains a concern as planting season approaches and irrigation demand increases.
Until meaningful rainfall returns to the South Plains, Terry County will remain in a familiar pattern — dry, cautious, and watching the skies for relief.
